Monday, February 6, 2017

SECTION 3 - Why Chris Paul's Playoff Statistics Are Not as Impressive



Any top 15 PG of all-time would put up statistics just as good, if not better, than Chris Paul if they played under such ideal statistical circumstances to protect and inflate his numbers. Career-wise, you have to consider that CP3 played 9 of his 13 career series in the 1st round and never faced a team that was good enough to even make the Finals after beating him, let alone win it all. 

Of course he's going to have good playoff stats if he's only faced 2nd and 3rd-tier playoff competition his whole career, and has not had to maintain his stats for longer playoff runs by playing most of his career series in the 1st round. Same goes for his elimination stats, Game 7 stats, etc. All protected and inflated under ideal statistical circumstances. Not at all comparable to the stats of true greats who 

1. played against much better competition (Finals or Title teams, which CP3 never faced)
2. maintained their stats for longer playoff runs than playing 9 of 13 series in the 1st round

So his playoff stats are very misleading. It is worth noting that the proportion of top 10 defenses that one faces does not matter when playing under 1st round inflation. Even when facing a high proportion of top 10 defenses, 1st round inflation still heavily protects and inflates one's statistics regardless.

Here are plenty of examples that show how much easier it is to average big numbers in the playoffs when the majority of your series are in the 1st round. This does not factor in the additional benefit of facing 0 Finals/Title teams as Chris Paul does, with the exception of 2001-2008 Tracy McGrady.

When referring to top ranked defenses in this section, it refers to defenses that were ranked top 10 in PPG allowed.

1. Kevin Garnett 1999 - 2004 Playoffs 6 of 8 series in 1st round
Garnett had the highest post-1980 playoff RPG 
average after playing 6 of 8 playoff series
in the 1st round from 1999-2004
Starting with 1999 because that is the first time he averaged a double double in a playoff series 23.5 ppg on 46% 14.2 rpg 5.3 apg 1.4 spg 1.9 bpg 14.2 rpg would be top 7 in playoff history between Cowens and Dwight Howard. And it would be the number 1 playoff rebounding average amongst all players since 1980. (the last year Wes Unseld made the playoffs, career 14.9 rpg playoff average) Garnett only has one playoff run of 14 rpg lasting past the first round in 2004. Top ranked defenses (3 of 8 series) - 1999 Spurs - 2000 Blazers - 2001 Spurs 2. Reggie Miller (Age 24-36) 1st round playoff series averages only 1990 - 1996, 1998 - 2002 Playoffs, 43 games
Had Reggie Miller played only in the 1st round
from 1990-2002 up to age 36, he would be
a top 9 playoff PPG scorer on just under
50/40/90 shooting. Reggie also faced plenty
of top ranked defenses in that stretch.
25.7 ppg 3.1 rpg 2.7 apg 48% FG 39% 3PT 88% FT 25.7 ppg would be good enough for top 9 in playoff ppg between Hakeem and Curry, up to 2016. Had Reggie played only in the 1st round from 1990 to 2002, he would be top 9 in playoff ppg on just under extremely efficient 50/40/90 shooting. Despite playing up to age 36 well past his prime. Top ranked defenses (8 of 12 series) - 1990 Pistons - 1992 Celtics - 1993 Knicks - 1995 Hawks - 1996 Hawks (1 game) - 1998 Cavs - 2001 Sixers - 2002 Nets 3. George Gervin 1977 - 1985 NBA Playoffs 8 of 11 playoff runs lasted for just one round
Gervin heavily benefited from 1st-round inflation
in the NBA Playoffs, and has a top 7 playoff
scoring  average of all-time as a result.
27.9 ppg on 51% 6.0 rpg 3.2 apg 27.9 ppg would be top 6 in playoff career ppg between LeBron and Baylor. Gervin has 27.0 ppg for his NBA playoff career which is top 7 all-time between Baylor and Hakeem Top ranked defenses (3 of 11 series) - 1979 Sixers - 1979 Bullets - 1982 Sonics 4. Carmelo Anthony 2004 - 2013 Playoffs 10 of 13 series in 1st round 25.7 ppg on 42% 7.3 rpg 2.8 apg Top 10 in playoff ppg, ahead of Kobe at 11 Top ranked defenses (7 of 13 series) - 2004 Wolves - 2005 Spurs - 2007 Spurs - 2009 Hornets - 2011 Celtics - 2012 Heat - 2013 Pacers 5. Dominique Wilkins 1986 - 1993 Playoffs 6 of 9 series in 1st round
Dominique faced a top ranked defense in nearly every
playoff series of his prime, but still had 28 ppg from
1986-1993 while playing 6 of 9 series in the 1st round
28.0 ppg on 43% 6.4 rpg 2.9 apg 28.0 ppg would be tied with LeBron for top 5 all-time in playoff ppg Top ranked defenses (7 of 9 series) - 1986 Celtics - 1987 Pacers - 1987 Pistons - 1988 Bucks - 1989 Bucks - 1991 Pistons
- 1993 Bulls

6. Alex English
1982 - 1990 Playoffs
9 of 14 series in 1st round

26.1 ppg on 50% FG
5.6 rpg
4.7 apg 

If you remove English's 1978 playoff run of 13 ppg for 9 games, he would be top 9 in playoff ppg ahead of Hakeem with 26.1 ppg

Top ranked defenses (5 of 14 series)
- 1982 Suns
- 1983 Suns
- 1985 Jazz
- 1988 Mavs
- 1990 Spurs


7. Tracy McGrady Orlando/Houston playoff years 2001 - 2008 Playoffs 6 of 6 series in 1st round

Like Chris Paul, T-Mac never faced a Finals/Title team as
a starter, and had even higher inflation than normal as a result, on
top of playing all of his playoff years as a starter in the 1st round.
29.5 ppg on 43% 6.9 rpg 6.5 apg Top ranked defenses (2 of 6 series) - 2002 Hornets - 2003 Pistons 29.5 ppg would be top 3 in playoff scoring averages between Iverson and West Like CP3, none of Tmac's opponents as a starter went on to make the Finals. 
Except for Tmac, all of these other guys in their starter years lost to a team that went on to make the Finals or win it all, both in the 1st round and after. TMac is the only one who shares that circumstance with Paul, and also has the highest inflation of the players listed as a result. He would have a top 3 playoff scoring average under 1st-round inflation including only ORL/HOU years.

Any top 15 all-time PG would put up the same or better playoff stats as Chris Paul under similar circumstances, evidenced by 1994-1997 Rod Strickland.


8. Rod Strickland 

1994 - 1997 Playoffs (4 of 4 series in 1st round)

21.7 ppg on 45% 5.1 rpg 9.5 apg 2.9 TOpg Top ranked defenses (3 of 4 series) - 1994 Rockets - 1996 Jazz - 1997 Bulls

While benefiting from 1st-round inflation, 1994-1997
Strickland averaged more  PPG, RPG, APG than
Chris Paul in the playoffs. Rod also faced 2 title teams,
whereas CP3 has never faced a Finals/Title team.
9. Chris Paul 
2008 - 2017 playoffs 
(9 of 13 series in 1st round)

21.4 ppg on 48% 4.7 rpg 9.4 apg 2.7 TOpg Top ranked defenses (7 of 12 series) - 2008 Mavs - 2008 Spurs - 2011 Lakers - 2012 Grizzlies - 2013 Grizzlies - 2014 Warriors - 2015 Spurs

- 2017 Jazz

While benefiting from 1st-round inflation, 1994-1997 Strickland averaged more PPG, RPG, APG than 2008-2017 CP3, on slightly less efficiency, while playing against 2 championship teams (compared to 0 Finals/Title teams for Paul) and with less help. Chris Paul's playoff statistics are not any more impressive than prime Rod Strickland's, he simply maintained his prime for a longer period of time than Strickland did.



So what have we learned from this? Chris Paul's playoff stats are incomparable to true all-time greats, because they came under such ideal statistical circumstances, as proven by several aforementioned examples. Not only did he play 9 of 13 playoff series in the 1st round, he faced 0 teams that were good enough to even make the Finals, let alone win it all, doubly inflating and protecting his stats due to easy competition on top of beneficial 1st-round inflation

Chris Paul's fans also love to cite and parrot "advanced stats." The truth is that that such metrics are not at all accurate for gauging individual play.

1. David Robinson is top 5 in regular season PER and top 3 in WS/48, but not even a top 5 center of all-time. In the playoffs, David Robinson and Jerry West are top 10 in WS/48. Barkley and Kawhi Leonard are top 15. Better players like Hakeem, Shaq, and Bird are not.

2. In the playoffs, Barkley, Dirk, and Westbrook are top 10 all-time in PER, McGrady and David Robinson are top 15. Yet Kareem Magic, Bird, Kobe, Moses, Garnett, and other better players are not top 15.

3. In the playoffs, Barkley is top 5 in BPM, Westbrook and Baron Davis are top 10. David Robinson, and T-Mac are top 15. but Duncan, Kareem, Shaq, and other better players are not top 15.

4. In the playoffs, Horace Grant, McHale, Tyson Chandler, Cedric Maxwell, and Hersey Hawkins make up numbers 2-6 in career ORTG. So-called "advanced" stats are just arbitrary and excessive measurements that don't accurately gauge individual play.

Even if advanced stats were accurate, they still would not matter because Chris Paul benefits from 1st-round inflation and facing 0 Finals/title teams to protect his playoff statistics under ideal circumstances.



It is quite easy to defeat the weak "advanced" stat arguments of Chris Paul fans with their own logic.

1. CP3 has the highest ORTG of any player.
Reggie Miller has the highest ORTG of any SG at number 2
Is he the best SG of all-time?

2. CP3 has the highest OBPM of any PG at number 3. 
Charles Barkley has the highest OBPM of any PF at number 7.
Is he the best PF of all-time?

3. CP3 has the highest BPM of any PG at number 3.
Charles Barkley has the highest BPM of any PF at number 4.
Is he the best PF of all-time?

David Robinson has the highest BPM of any C at number 5.
Is he the best C of all-time?

4. CP3 has the highest PER of any PG at number 6. 
David Robinson has the 2nd-highest PER of any C at number 4.
Is he the 2nd-best C of all-time?

5. CP3 has the highest WS/48 of any PG at number 3.
David Robinson has the highest WS/48 of any C at number 2.
Is he the best C of all-time?

6. CP3 has the highest Playoff BPM of any PG at number 3
Charles Barkley has the highest Playoff BPM of any PF at number 5.
Is he the best PF of all-time?

7. CP3 has the highest Playoff PER of any PG at number 6
Charles Barkley has the 2nd-highest Playoff PER of any PF at number 5.
Is he the 2nd-best PF of all-time?


8. CP3 has the highest Playoff WS/48 of any PG at number 5
Kawhi Leonard has the 2nd-highest Playoff PER of any SF at number 4

Is he the 2nd-best SF of all-time?

SECTION 1 - The Myth That Chris Paul Doesn't Have Good Help

SECTION 2 - The Myth That Chris Paul is an Elite Defender
SECTION 3 - Why Chris Paul's Playoff Statistics Are Not as Impressive
SECTION 4 - Chris Paul is Not a Top 10 Point Guard of All-Time

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